Bitcoin ETF may weaken price in short term, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan analysts believe that the much desired ETF Bitcoin (BTC) could positively impact the price of Bitcoin and the overall market for cryptomycins in the long term. However, analysts also believe that the price of cryptomeda would suffer a short-term loss when the ETF is approved.
According to analysts, a Bitcoin ETF would withdraw institutional funds from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a move that could negatively affect the BTC price.
Due to regulatory and other restrictions, some Wall Street firms and hedge funds may not own Bitcoin directly or even buy shares in Grayscale. To access the Bitcoin market, your only option is to buy GBTC shares through the secondary markets with a premium.
However, launching a Bitcoin ETF would drastically reduce the premium. Consequently, adversely affecting the attractiveness of GBTC shares. A drop in the GBTC premium would also reduce the glamour of a popular trade.
Some financial institutions currently buy GBTC at net asset value, with the goal of selling after the six-month mandatory lockout period has expired. In this way, they capitalize on the premium and make a profit. However, if the premium on GBTC falls after an ETF entry, the popularity of buying GBTC for Native Asset Value (NAV) will decline dramatically.
According to JPMorgan analysts, GBTC’s premium monetization trade may account for about 15% of GBTC shares in circulation. Analysts added that the prospect of a Bitcoin ETF and the decline in the GBTC premium may cause some institutional investors who entered the market in the second half of 2020 to sell their shares when the six-month blockade expires. Thus, pressing down on the GBTC awards.
The cryptomoedas community has long wanted an ETF Bitcoin, as it believes it would attract more institutional investors to the market. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has blocked all efforts by institutions like VanEck and Bitwise to launch a Bitcoin ETF.
VanEck has not yet given up, as it proposed another Bitcoin ETF at the end of 2020. Optimism about the SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF this year is high, as a new commissioner is expected to be appointed this year by President-elect Joe Biden.